LOTT

The Law Of Total Tricks (LOTT)

From Marty Cohen’s book

Rev: 12-27-97

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Simplified Treatment

This is a bit of over-simplification, but as a rule-of-thumb it is correct 80% of the time.

When it comes to competitive bidding, trumps are everything. Simply count your trumps and add them to the number of trumps your partner has implied to determine the trick level to which you can compete. If the partnership has 8 spades as a trump suit, you can compete to the level of 2S -- no more. If opponents bid over 2S you are almost always better off to defend rather that bid higher. Now this is different than sacrificing over an opponent’s game bid where, depending on vulnerability and lack of defensive cards, you may be better off to outbid them even if it’s beyond your trick level.

You are safe in competing to the trick level equal to your partnership’s number of trumps. Avoid bidding beyond that level in competitive auctions. Generally you can ignore vulnerability considerations.

Formal Treatment

The term “Total Tricks” is a number equal, plus or minus a trick, to “total trumps”. Total trumps is a number obtained by adding the number of trumps your side hold in your suit fit to the number of trumps your opponents hold in their suit fit. This number is inferred by the bidding.

When Opponents Play NT: The total trumps equals 9 for them plus our number of trumps. If they have a 6-card (or greater) running suit add 1 to the total trumps and one additional for each card in the running suit over six.

Negative Factors: Suggest Total Tricks less than number of trumps (more inclined to defend

Negative Purity - minor honors in opponents suit, or poor interiors in your suits

Negative Fit - misfits

Negative Shape - flat hands

Positive Factors: Suggest Total Tricks will be more than number of trumps

Positive Purity - no minor honors in opponents suit, or good interiors in your suits

Positive Fit - double/double fit

Positive Shape - extra length or voids

The Law Says:

Never outbid the opponents on the 3-level with 16 total trumps

Usually outbid the opponents on the 3-level with 17 total trumps

Always outbid the opponents on the 3-level with 18 total trumps

Always bid to the level equal to the combined number of trumps held by your side when total trumps are 18+

Try not to let opponents play at a level equal to their number of trumps

Always bid spades over opponents hearts at the 4-level with 18 total trumps and your side having 9. If you hold four trump in opponent’s suit consider doubling (even with only 17 total trumps, your side with 9)

Never compete at the 5-level unless there are at least 21 total trumps (22 is better) -- your side having 11. The exceptions are: (a) a good sacrifice, or (b) a higher score for making your contract than for defeating opponents.